Black Swan*

The first known landing in Australia by Europeans was by a Dutch navigator Willem Janszoon (ca.1570-1630) in 1606 and in 1697 the Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh (ca. 1640-1698) discovered black swans in Australia. This was an unexpected event in (scientific) history that profoundly changed not just Zoology but also the people's way of thinking. Before the discovery of Australia, the people in the old world had no reason to believe that swans could be of any other color but white. The Latin expression "Rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno" (A rare bird on this earth, like nothing so much as a black swan) from the Roman satirist Juvenal (ca. 60-130) attested for the term 'black swan' to be a metaphor for any nonexistent event unless empirical evidence proves otherwise. It is similar to the Filipino idiom that also uses avian subjects: "Kapag pumuti na ang uwak at umitim ang tagak" (Literally, 'When the crow becomes white and the heron becomes black'). 

Recently, Lebanese-American author Nassim Nicholas Taleb (b. 1960), whose work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty, has largely redefined the metaphor, or at least refined it. He provided three properties of a 'black swan' event: (1) It is unpredictable. (2). It has severe and widespread consequences. (3). And after the occurrence of such event, people will rationalize it as having been predictable (known as the hindsight bias); therefore, 'black swan' events are prospectively unpredictable yet retrospectively predictable. 

Arguably, recent events affecting the Church and our country that are featured in this blog are regarded as 'black swans'. We shall reflect on three 'black swans' but there are still others presented in this issue such as clerical sexual misconduct among others. 

Querida Amazonia

The Post-Synodal Apostolic Exhortation Querida Amazonia (2020) presents the dreams of Pope Francis for the Amazon region: (1). A social dream for the Church to continue to be at the side of the poor and the oppressed, and that the Amazon Region may become a place of dialogue; (2). A cultural dream of taking care of our open encounter rather than a closed "indigenism"; (3) An ecological dream to be united in caring for the environment and for the people for the sustainable development in the Amazon region; and (4) an ecclesial dream to develop a Church with an Amazonian face and a renewed inculturation of the Gospel in the Amazon region.

In Querida Amazonia, the 'black swan' topics surrounding the Eucharist, specifically on the viri probati (married clergy) and women deacons—which are proposed in light of the great pastoral need for the sacraments in remote places of the Amazon since the Eucharist is not celebrated for long stretches of time because of the lack of priests—were not included in the pope’s exhortation. Pope Francis, however, underscores that the Eucharist “makes the Church” so he asks for the greater participation of the laity in “exercising the pastoral care” of parishes and encourages women to contribute their gifts to the church, “in a way that is properly theirs.” For the pope, it is not a matter “of facilitating a greater presence of ordained ministers”. He calls this a “narrow” objective if it does not succeed in awakening “new life in communities”. Thus, new “lay services” are called for. Only through an “active involvement of the laity can the Church respond to the challenges in the Amazon region”. Consecrated persons also have a special role to play. Furthermore, the pope urges all the bishops, especially those in Latin America, “to be more generous” in encouraging those who “display a missionary vocation” to choose the Amazon region and he invites all bishops to evaluate the formation to the priesthood.

Pope Francis concludes the exhortation Querida Amazonia with a prayer to the Mother of the Amazon Region, the Blessed Virgin Mary. “Mother, look upon the poor of the Amazon region for their home is being destroyed by petty interests…. Touch the hearts of the powerful, for, even though we sense that the hour is late, you call us to save what is still alive.”

Taal Volcano Eruption

The shocking eruption of the Taal Volcano in the Philippines began on 12 January 2020 displacing thousands of Filipinos. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) subsequently issued an Alert Level 4, indicating that "a hazardous explosive eruption is possible within hours to days." It was a phreatic eruption from the main crater that spewed ashes to Calabarzon, Metro Manila, some parts of Central Luzon, and Pangasinan in Ilocos Region, resulting in the suspension of classes, work schedules, and flights. Taal Volcano brought "fire and lightning" that drastically changed the life of the people living in the area even after the volcanic activity decreased.

Jorge Mojarro, a research fellow and associate professorial lecturer, recounted the 1754 eruption through the accounts of friars who survived the catastrophe (cf. Manila Times, 1754: A Friar’s Tale of Volcano’s Wrath, 17 January 2020). An Augustinian friar named Fr. Aguirre composed a brief, hurried and dramatic narration of the destruction of the town of Taal, and the reader can feel at times that the author must had been struggling to find the right words to properly express the immensity of the disaster. Then and now, there would be people who might think that this 'black swan' event is a scourge of a vengeful God. The Catholic Bishops' Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) uses the very words of St. John Paul II: “While it is true that suffering has a meaning as punishment, when it is connected with a fault, it is not true that all suffering is a consequence of a fault and has the nature of a punishment. The figure of the just man Job is a special proof of this in the Old Testament. Revelation, which is the word of God Himself, with complete frankness presents the problem of the suffering of an innocent man: suffering without guilt (St. John Paul, Salvifici Doloris, 11). Furthermore, CBCP points out that "our world—the very same world that nurtures and nourishes us—is made up of processes: the very processes by which the wonderful miracle of evolution has taken place and continues to take place". The bishops reiterate that "This is the time to strengthen our love, to increase our faith and embolden our hope. God is not the Great Punisher. He is the Lord who walks among His people in distress. God is love" (cf. CBCP, Fire and Heat, Lightnings and Clouds, Bless the Lord! (Dan 3:66,73)—Pastoral Message on the Natural Calamities Happening in the Country, 27 January 2020).

2019 Novel Corona Virus

As the world watches with anxiety and vigilance the spread of the 2019 Novel Corona Virus (2019-N CoV), the Filipino Bishops exhort us to do precautionary measures and most importantly, "to turn to our Loving Father in heaven for protection and guidance." Acting upon the instruction of Archbishop Romulo G. Valles, DD, President of the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines (CBCP), the guidelines and an Oratio Imperata (mandated prayer) on 2019-N CoV were issued to the people so that as a Church and a nation, we may bring our supplication through united prayer.

On 26 January 2020, after reciting the Angelus with pilgrims at St. Peter’s Square, Pope Francis expressed his concern about the coronavirus epidemic and prayed for its victims and their families: “I wish to be close to and pray for the people who are sick because of the virus that has spread through China. May the Lord welcome the dead into His peace, comfort families and sustain the great commitment by the Chinese community that has already been put in place to combat the epidemic.” Responding to concerns expressed by Pope Francis about the spread of the coronavirus in China, the Holy See has donated 600,000 masks for distribution to people in the most affected areas. People die everyday by the hour and we seem to be defenseless in face of such 'black swan'. What could be the prognosis in the coming days? When will this end? Although researchers may find the question, it is undeniable that each person today learned how to value and appreciate life more than ever. 

Epilogue

Although 'black swan' events seem to come with a negative connotation, the concept does not only apply to negative events alone. Whether the event is positive or negative depends on the perspective of the faithful. A person grows in faith in the face of such events. The unprecedented resilience of Filipinos are tested in trying moments. Remember that a swan is a bird of great strength, but it only uses its strength at its advantage, to defend, and not to offend. Through scientific researches, we know that the swan uses its strength to protect its family and its nest, may we defend our faith and remain steadfast until the end.